The impact of the Iraq war on the euro

Of course, the Bush administration is very clear how much political risks are going to this war, but the United States eventually resolutely launched the war under the guise of "eliminating large -scale lethal weapons". As the country with the most developed market economy in the world, of course, the United States will not move for "humanitarianism", but has deep political and economic purposes. Some people point out that in a sense, the US attack on Iraq is the war of the US dollar to the euro war to the euro. Essence
The strong US dollar policy meets the fundamental interests of the United States, but the euro has become an irreversible trend of the market. Low -level inflation and unemployment rate. While American residents enjoying cheap products that are constantly incorporated from abroad, they have no concern to realize "spend tomorrow's money and realize today's dreams." The Federal Reserve Chairman Green Pan once attracted the envy of the world: while maintaining a low interest rate, he confidently watched the banknotes from all over the world flowing into the United States, and realized the low inflation rate and savings rate to maintain the US economic prosperity Target. The secrets of this may not be clear about ordinary Americans, but of course the US senior officials understand that this is due to the "strong dollar". In other words, the economic prosperity of the United States is in the final analysis of the strong dollar. The United States can act as the last loan and make up for the deficit by issuing a large amount of bonds. Because there are a large number of buyers on the bond market, a considerable part of them are foreign funds. In this way, the US dollar earned by foreign countries from the United States eventually returned to the United States in the form of purchasing US dollar bonds, further promoting the sustainable development of the US economy, and the US dollar became more firm with the support of a large number of return funds. Such a virtuous circle builds a solid chain of economic development in the United States.
but a link in the chain finally occurred. Since April 2000, the new economic bubble represented by the United States has begun to break down. What followed in 2001 was the "September 11" terrorist attack in 2001 and the financial fraud scandal of large US companies. The market was uproar, investors and investors and investors and investors and Consumers' confidence turned sharply, and the US economy stepped into decline. What's even more fatal is that the "interest rate cut" magic weapon in Greenspan could not afford the confidence of investors and consumers. At the same time, the European economy is relatively good, the stock market is relatively healthy, and interest rates are higher than the United States. Therefore, since 2002, dramatic changes have occurred in the international capital market. A large number of international funds have flowed out of the United States and turned into Europe and Asia. Go downhill. Although the US Treasury Secretary has repeatedly issued a statement that the strong US dollar policy meets the fundamental interests of the United States, the strengthening of the euro seems to have become an irreversible trend of the market. Under the helplessness, the Bush administration hopes to stimulate economic growth through large -scale reduction of taxes and large amounts of military expenditure expenditure. The highest level. The appreciation of the euro has further driven out funds from the United States. From the fourth quarter of 2002, the international capital that flows into Europe every month is more than 15 billion euros, and a large number of European bonds are purchased. This is international capital since 1995 For the first time after a large -scale flowing to the United States. If this trend develops, the United States will face a serious financial turmoil that is more serious than the Asian financial crisis in 1997, and the US economy will fall into an unprecedented dilemma.
If the United States should take measures to prevent international capital from flowing to the euro zone, thereby completely defeating the support point of the euro
Faced with the euro that directly threatens itself, the United States also takes action to block the rise of the euro in any case and prevent the euro from the euro. Replace the dollar to become the world's leading currency. The United States has only "a road of Huashan": preventing international capital from flowing to the euro area, thereby completely defeating the support point of the euro. This way is war, "eliminating Iraq's large -scale lethal weapons" has become the best excuse.
First of all, by occupying Iraq, eliminating Saddam, seizing Middle East oil, controlling international oil prices, and cracking down on opponents. The United States accounts for 5%of the world's population, but consumes nearly 42%of the world's energy. The Middle East accounted for 66%of the world's oil reserves, and the control of the Middle East oil is equivalent to controlling the international oil market. In the United States, the United States can produce international oil prices from its own interests and use this to combat opponents. According to statistics, every time oil prices fall at $ 1, Russia will reduce revenue of $ 1 billion. In contrast, more than 60%of EU countries need to be imported. Except for Britain (there are certain oil reserves in the north), the oil import dependence rate of EU countries is as high as 80%to 90%, of which Germany is the highest, reaching 98%, reaching 98% Essence For EU countries that rely on imported oil, any wind blowing of oil prices will seriously affect the economic growth of the country. The abacus of the United States is based on this: By controlling international oil prices, the fiscal conditions of the country of the euro zone, the foundation of the Stability and Growth Convention, and cracking down on the euro.
Secondly, the consumer confidence in the euro zone is combined through the war. From a geographical point of view, the Middle East is far from the American continent and close to Europe. It can be said that the impact of consumer confidence caused by war on the euro zone is far greater than the impact on the United States. For euro -zone countries with high unemployment rates, consumer confidence is a key factor in economic growth. A recent survey from the European Union shows that almost all euro zone economists believe that once the war of war spreads to Iraq's neighbors, consumers of consumers in the euro zone will fall thousands of feet, and the euro zone economy will face great difficulties, euros and all all all difficulties, euros and all all all difficulties. The euro assets will suffer huge losses.
The third, the United States has even planned to have a back road. Even if the US -Iranian war develops in the direction that is not conducive to the United States, the United States will be able to take out the reasons for reasons to allow the EU to participate in the post -war reconstruction of Iraq. This reconstruction cost alone is enough to make the financial situation of the euro zone countries stretched out.
Once European stoves, the United States will have a powerful enemy
In fact, "leading domestic contradictions to foreign countries" is the consistent practice of the US government. The Kosovo war that has not disappeared from people's memory is evidence.
On the eve of the start of the euro, the United States has actually seen that the successful start of the euro may have a huge challenge to the US dollar. The United States is very clear that the United European continent has pose a huge threat to the US's economy, politics, and military interests. From an economic perspective, although the euro's new thing will not pose a direct threat to the US dollar in the infant period, it is only a matter of time to challenge the US dollar as a strong world. From a political perspective, although Britain has not yet joined the euro zone, the unity of the European continent will make different voices that the United States is unwilling to hear. From a military level, European military forces made the United States awareness as early as the Gulf War in 1991. Once the oven in Europe, the United States will have a powerful enemy. Because of this, on the eve of the Kosovo war, most members of the United States insist on preventing European portal through force, that is, through the in -depth European hinterland, mobilizing war in the heart of Europe, and preventing international capital from flowing to Europe. The time to delay the euro "grows from infants into adults". It turns out that the euro declined immediately after the start of the Kosovo war. After the start of a high price of $ 1.1877 from the beginning of 1999, the euro has been showing a decline. By the end of 1999, 1 euro could only exchange $ 1.0075. Nearly 14%. The decline of the euro has greatly shaken the confidence of the successful integration of the international capital to the euro, which seriously affects the process of European unity. EU officials have made it clear after the war that the Kosovo war is a war that requires EU seriously.
This also needs to be reflected. The reconstruction of Kosovo after the war also brought a lot of burden on the EU. As the popular saying "war is an American business, and peace is a matter of European people", the European Union paid most of the expenses for Kosovo's post -war reconstruction, which naturally expands the fiscal expenditure of the euro zone country and aggravate The fiscal deficit pressure has brought a lot of adverse effects to the economic growth of the euro zone.
Expressing the euro to become an international currency system is an irreversible trend.
. Although the United States has taken a mindfulness of the euro, the euro has become an important trend of the international monetary system.
First, the economic fundamentals of economic decisions are determined by finance, and the relatively good economic fundamentals of the euro zone country are the decisive factor of strengthening the euro. Compared with the economic downturn in the United States, the economic operation of the euro zone countries is relatively stable, and the main driving force is export growth, construction industry growth, and financial and commercial growth.
The status of the euro in international trade settlement and international currency reserves is increasing. From the perspective of the former, European multinational companies settled with the euro, and most of the mergers and acquisitions of pan -European were settled in the euro; the trade between the euro zone countries, the exports of the United States to the euro zone, and the export of Asia to the euro zone. Settlement. Judging from the latter, the status of the euro in international currency reserves is increasing. At present, the US dollar is still dominated in the international currency reserve system, but after 2002, the substantial issuance and circulation of the euro jumped to the second place in the international currency reserves due to the following the share of the original German Mark, and it is very likely that in the future Gradually developed to the position of competing with the US dollar. At the same time, the reserve authorities in the world hold part of the euro in order to avoid the risks brought by the US dollar in order to avoid the risks brought by the US dollar.
of course, if the euro wants to truly become a strong international coin with the US dollar trial, there is still a long way to go, and the journey of the euro to the strong currency will not be smooth. In this regard, international institutions, including the Central Bank of China, have a sober understanding of international institutions.
It hard to repeat the good drama of the 1991 Gulf War
The economy is the foundation, and politics will always serve the economy, especially in the United States in the world's number one market economy country. The United States' war against Iraq is not just to eradicate the Saddam regime, but to never defend the status of its world economic overlord. The United States expressed dissatisfaction with France's unsuccessful position on the Iraq war. U.S. Secretary of U.S. Powell and British Prime Minister Blair even publicly stated that the choice of France was "unforgivable mistakes" and "the most dangerous political game in Europe". In the beginning, the United States did not expect that France would join the ranks of attacking Iraq.
It the United States expects a good drama of the Gulf War in 1991, but the current economic situation in the United States determines that its abacus may fall. During the Gulf War in 1991, after the structural adjustment of the US economy in the 1980s, the structural income and economic cycle effects were appearing. After taking a stitch, the US economy recovered in April 1992, and achieved the longest 10 -year economic growth cycle in American history. But to this day, the US economy is on the edge of recession. After a long period of growth in the 1990s, the United States has entered the era of overcapacity, and the problem of universal consumption and currency austerity is difficult to solve in the short term. Therefore, for the US economy, this war will not repeat the good drama of the Gulf War in 1991.

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