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wholesale diamond jewelry usa Financial Association (Beijing, reporter Zhang Xiaoyu) News In recent days, the geopolitical risks of Russia and Ukraine have increased sharply, which has led to a fierce market shock. The China Macroeconomic Analysis Team of Goldman Sachs Research issued a research report to answer the common questions that the incident is related to China's economy and market.
The Russian -Ukraine conflict has caused rising commodity prices, and its influence on China's inflation rate is limited.
Russia and Ukraine are the main suppliers in the global grain market. Recently, grain prices including wheat and corn have risen sharply. However, the Goldman Sachs Macroeconomic Analysis Team believes that this has a limited impact on China's CPI inflation rate, because China's grain import dependence is low (for example, 4%of Chinese wheat consumption comes from imports), and the weight of grain in the CPI basket Low (less than 2%), the type of grain can be replaced (for example, consumers can increase rice/reduce wheat consumption), and the Chinese government attaches increasingly paying attention to food supply safety. China's domestic grain retail price is far from fierce foods such as pork and vegetables.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions have also caused rising crude oil prices. On February 24, the price of Brent crude oil was close to $ 105/barrel, an increase of about 50%from the low point in early December. However, the Goldman Sachs Macroeconomic Analysis Team believes that the higher oil price will not bring significant uplifting risks to its current inflation forecast. This is because the team's current inflation prediction has reflected the prediction of the high price of the Gaosheng Great Commodity Research Team (the 12 -month target oil price given is $ 105/barrel).
This China's macro analysis team predicts that even though the annual forecast of the high -Grand Sect's commodity team is more than $ 10/barrel, it will only promote China's CPI/PPI inflation rate of about 0.25 percentage points. Therefore, considering that the current CPI/PPI inflation rate forecast of Goldman Sachs is 2.5%/5.2%, and Bloomberg market forecast is 2.1%/4.0%. We think this high forecast is still applicable.
The overall import and export of Russia in China is relatively small, and it has a small impact on the real economy.
This is the most important economic bond between China and Russia. Although Russia ’s overall import and export of imports and exports in China is relatively small (2-3%in 2021), China's overall import and export in Russia is quite high. According to the recent available 2020 data, China is in the current available 2020 data, China is in the current available in 2020, China is now Russian exports and imports accounted for 15%and 24%, respectively.
For different products, China especially relies on Russia's commodities and raw materials. 17%of China's wood and wood products and 16%of crude oil are imported from Russia. At the same time, Russia relies on various industrial products imported from China, nearly 40%of transportation equipment and 30%of electromechanical equipment from China.
Because 30%of the current European energy demand comes from Russia, and the US inflation rate at decades at a high point, Goldman Sachs believes that the further upgrade in geopolitics has caused market demand for markets outside China to decrease sharply. The situation is unlikely to happen. However, if the trade between Russia and other countries has declined with the tightening of the ban and restrictions, then there is indeed the possibility of Sino -Russian trade growth, that is, China has increased the import of commodities from Russia. Produced products imported.
It other emerging economies of currency depreciation of the RMB performance behind it has dual support
Is since the recent intensification of geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine, the price of gold has risen and the US dollar appreciates. Most emerging economies have depreciated against the US dollar. However, the RMB exchange rate has always performed strongly. The Goldman Sachs Macroeconomic Analysis Team believes that there are two reasons that can explain why the RMB has not been weak in the current selling of risk assets.
The first, the environment is critical. At present, China's trade surplus is at a record high, and the inflow of foreign capital inflows (such as structural factors (for example, the RMB asset allocation of overseas investors is still low, the index incorporates the inflow of investment portfolios), and it remains strong. The impact of risk aversion caused by Wudi's political tension on the RMB exchange rate is relatively limited.
Secondly, a specific impact factor is considered. The current geopolitical tension will promote the transfer of foreign reserves from the US dollar and euro to RMB. In fact, Russia's US dollar assets have fallen sharply in recent years. From 2017 to 2021, the proportion of RMB assets in Russia's foreign reserves ($ 640 billion) from Russia's foreign reserves ($ 640 billion) rose from less than 3%to 13%. The further upgrading of Russia and Ukraine's geopolitical tension may also strengthen the status of RMB's settlement currency in the Sino -Russian trade. Therefore, the essence of the current market risk aversion can promote the inflow of funds into RMB assets in some ways.
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The inflation rate 2021 -: The average inflation rate of China in 2021 is 3.13%. The annual consumer price index of the month increased by 0.4%compared with the three parts of the same year, and increased by 0.9%compared with the same period last year. In 2021, China's economic market has basically maintained peace and stability. When analyzing, just ...

Is what is the real inflation level in our country this year? I think CPI increases only 2-3%: I think it is 6-7%, in the 1990s, in the 1990s, in the 1990s, in the 1990s, in the 1990s, in the 1990s, in the 1990s The speed of which GDP is better, and it can be regarded as low inflation. This official has no specific data. It is expected It must reach 10%year, and inflation is very likely.

What is the current official inflation rate?: 1.3%in the first half of the year, not high, only GDP high 10.9%. . . R n
If in China's current inflation rate and one -year deposit interest rate, how much does we deposit 10,000 yuan or increase? %Of interest tax, the name deposit interest rate obtained by the depositor is only 1.8%. If the price rising factors are calculated, the actual interest rate calculation formula is: actual interest rate = nominal interest rate-inflation rate, generally, CPI increases Instead of inflation rate, according to the national CPI increase of 3.9%(first quarter data), the actual interest rate of the bank's one-year deposit should be: 1.8%-3.9%=-2.1%, which means that if 10,000 yuan is deposited as a bank, The one -year period of time deposits. After one year, the actual purchasing power of 10,000 yuan has been reduced by 210 yuan, that is, the depreciation of 210 yuan.

How is the inflation rate in China? The difference between the growth rate of currency M2 and the actual GDP growth rate is estimated. The average data in the past 10 years: The average growth rate of China's M2 is 17.22%, and the actual growth rate of GDP is 9.6%, then China's actual currency inflation from 2004 to 2014 to 2014 The average rate is about 7.62%, which indicates that the past 10 years, China has been in a state of high inflation. In 2014: The average growth rate of M2 in China is 13.02%, the actual growth rate of GDP is 7.4%, and the actual currency inflation rate in 2014 is about about approximately about approximately about the approximately approximate currency inflation rate. For 5.62%. According to the trend, in 2015, the inflation rate will be maintained at about 5%. That is to say, in the past 10 years, the annual income of the wealth management products purchased in the past 10 years will Declars depreciation status.

2021 will be severely inflated-: Will severe inflation in 2021? These days I see that many people say that super inflation is coming, and some people take 2021 2021 The year is defined as the year of super inflation. Their reason is that the global currency is put in water, which will definitely bring super big inflation. This understanding is serious and wrong. First, if the currency supply increases, the business ... ...

2021 inflation will not be very powerful-: inflation is the rise in prices that cause the depreciation of a country's currency. The essential difference between inflation and rising prices: General prices rising refers to a certain, certain commodities Because the imbalance of supply and demand caused the temporary, partial, and reversible rise in prices, it will not cause currency depreciation; inflation is the major domestic goods in the country that can cause a country's currency depreciation ...

China 2020 inflation rate What is the list? -: Inflation rate means that the rise in domestic price levels, when the prices of most commodities and labor in the economy are continuous When it is generally rising in the middle, it is said that this economy has experienced inflation. In terms of economics, the inflation rate is: the increase in the average level of price (based on inflation). N How much will the inflation rate in China in the next five years? What are the risks of bank wealth management products? What is the interest rate? What is the cost -effective? As an important indicator, basically last year, the previous year was maintained at about 3%. I looked at CCTV2 two days ago. The average CPI given by experts in the next two decades is 3.5%per year. You can use this as an inflation rate to calculate This is calculated every year. Banking theory ...